3D Remains a Gimmick

http://www.tvtechnology.com/article/90356

11.13.2009

NEW YORK:
If the trend of 3D movie releases is any indication, 3D will not be a huge game changer. That’s the assessment of Pali Research’s Rich Greenfield.

“While we did not intend to be the ‘3D Scrooge,’ we are increasingly skeptical that 3D will fundamentally alter the exhibition industry,” Greenfield wrote in his blog at Pali. “In most cases, 3D still appears to be a gimmick to get consumers to a theater to see a particular movie. Unfortunately, similar to 2D movies, most movies are only fair at best--story still matters far more than technology.”

On top of the movies being lousy, people are having to pay, on average, a $3 premium for 3D movies.

“We simply wonder if the 3D premiums are truly sustainable, if the level of content does not improve notably,” he wrote.

Greenfield said Disney’s 3D version of “A Christmas Carol,” release over the weekend, brought in just $30 million at the box office, “well below the levels most expected,” but more than the studio’s previous 3D release, “Bolt,” which did $26 million on opening weekend. Disney’s “GForce,” also offered in 3D, did $32 million during its summer opening weekend.

“While it may be too early to deem ‘Christmas Carol’ a write-down,” as was Disney’s 2002’s “Treasure Planet,” ...we believe the weak Sunday box office is not a good omen, on top of weak reviews and box office that would have been in the low-mid $20 million range if not for the premium pricing of 3D,” Greenfield said. “With yet another senior executive shake-up at Disney’s studio [Mark Zoradi stepped down as president of Walt Disney Motion Pictures Group this week], we would not be surprised to see a write-down that lowers Disney’s fiscal 2009 earnings, but which helps fiscal 2010 growth.”

Greenfield acknowledged that Fox intends to raise the bar for 3D content with next month’s release of “Avatar,” directed by James Cameron.

How 3D movie releases impact the format on TV remains to be seen. So far, most U.S. 3DTV fare has involved special simulcasts of sporting events to properly equipped theaters. ESPN most recently transmitted the USC-Ohio State Sept. 12 game live in 3D to a theater on the University of Southern California campus.

BSkyB successfully transmitted 3D content across its HD infrastructure earlier this year and plans a full-fledged launch for next year. Mexico’s Televisa recently broadcast its first soccer match in 3D.